Bets

I think bets are a pretty useful way to get down to business about what you actually believe, since money is on the line. When I disagree with people, I often try to operationalize it as a bet. Most of the time I don't end up making a bet, but sometimes I do.

• The Riemann hypothesis will be resolved by August 22, 2028. This is a bet against Sebastian Ohlig. I'm betting $25 against $100. I made this bet on August 22, 2026.
• The Riemann hypothesis will be resolved by August 22, 2028. This is a bet against Sidhant Chaliha. I'm betting $25 against $100. I made this bet on August 22, 2026.
• 100 years after the advent of god-like superintelligence (defined as being good enough at biology to be able to create any creature that is physically realizable from a description of it), both Jo and Jacob will be more than 99.9% confident that Claude Mythos 5 either did or did not have qualia. If it turns out that possessing qualia is a sliding scale, any qualia counts for the purposes of this bet. This bet assumes that Jo and Jacob will both try to resolve it in good faith. Jacob is on the side of YES and Jo is on the side of NO. Jacob thinks there's an 80% chance of this resolving YES; Jo thinks there's a 30% chance. This bet is at even odds and the loser has to give the winner min(1e-46 of the lightcone (by mass-energy, including dark matter if it is mass-energy), 1% of min(net worth of Jacob, net worth of Jo)) at the time of resolution. This bet is conditional on the Claude Mythos 5 weights, Jacob, and Jo being around when it resolves. I made this bet on August 23, 2026.